Arsenal’s urgent search for a number 2 goalkeeper – who should it be?

The hardest job in the transfer market is finding a suitable back-up player to join your club. You need to find the balance between the player having sufficient ability to step in and play a few games when needed, but they also need to be somewhat satisfied with finding themselves benched quite often. Arsenal have done this already in the transfer market. So far, Sambi Lokonga and Nuno Tavares have joined – both players who fit this description.

But at Arsenal, there is a situation where there are 3 current first-team goalkeepers. Bernd Leno, the number 1, who has 2 years left on his contract, and whom many Arsenal fans have casted their doubts upon his ability. Runar Alex Runarsson, who is rumoured to be leaving the club, disappointed last season. And Arthur Okonkwo, who was promoted to the first season last week at 19 years old, who is Arsenal’s ‘third goalkeeper.’ This leaves a big gap for a number 2 goalkeeper, but what kind of profile should Arsenal be targeting?

The Ideal Profile

As with Tavares and Lokonga, I expect this keeper to be of a young age, between 21-24. It seems as though Arsenal have taken the decision to stay away from deals for 30-year-olds who will see out their career at Arsenal. They have opted for the inexperienced but raw talents instead. This is the case in particular for the goalkeeper position. With the uncertainty over Bernd Leno’s future and ability, it would be pretty realistic to assume this number 2 goalkeeper could well become the number 1 in a couple of seasons. 

They need to be a player who is going to be satisfied with restricted gametime this season. But they also need to be making Leno sweat over his number 1 role. We can’t have a situation where Bernd Leno feels too comfortable as number 1. With this comfort, he might start to let his performance levels drop. That’s a situation Arsenal can’t afford to have. And most of all, this number 2 keeper needs to have the potential to develop into a world class number 1 goalkeeper for Arsenal in the future.

It has become clear that Mikel Arteta likes to play out from the back. This starts with the goalkeeper, so someone comfortable with his feet and with immaculate distribution is also vital for this number 2 goalkeeper. 

Who have Arsenal been linked with?

There are 2 main candidates at the moment that Arsenal have been linked with. First is West Brom’s Sam Johnstone. He was one of the few highlights for West Brom last year as they were relegated from the Premier League. He made 167 saves (although he still conceded 74 goals) in the 2020/21 season – the most of any goalkeeper in the Premier League. However, at 28 years of age, he does not quite fit the age profile that Arsenal are looking for. This might explain why Arsenal have much less interest in the player. West Ham did have some interest in Johnstone, but opted for Alphonse Areola in the end. It is likely that a bid of around £12 million could be enough to acquire Sam Johnstone.

Secondly, the player with stronger interest from Arsenal, is Aaron Ramsdale from Sheffield United. However, this news has not been received well by Arsenal fans (to say the least). Ramsdale was the keeper who got relegated with Bournemouth 2 seasons ago, and was relegated with Sheffield United last season. Last season he conceded 63 goals and kept only 5 clean sheets all season. To add to this, it is being reported by many sources that Sheffield United are looking for just over £30 million for the 23-year-old. This is an obscene fee considering that just a year ago, Arsenal let Emi Martinez go for just £17 million. Although it isn’t all bad for Ramsdale, as he was second on the list of saves made last season, making 147 saves.

What do the stats say?

A fascinating stat to use to compare goalkeepers is post-shot expected goals prevented. Post-shot xG is a stat that gives each shot a value up to 1.0 based on how likely it is to end up in the back of the net. It takes into account factors such as distance from goal, which area of the goal was shot at, power of the shot and defenders around the player. So let’s say a team concedes 50 goals over the season but concedes 55 PSxG over the season. Essentiallly, the goalkeeper has prevented 5 goals from going in. While let’s say another team concedes 50 goals but only 45 PSxG. Essentially the goalkeeper has not saved easy shots and so is responsible for conceding 5 goals over the season.

Aaron Ramsdale has prevented 1.9 PSxG over the season (conceding 60 goals from a PSxG of 61.9). While Sam Johnstone has prevented 4.3 PSxG (conceding 71 goals from a PSxG of 75.3). For comparison, the best goalkeeper last season was Alphonse Areola of Fulham who prevented 7.6 PSxG while the worst was Southampton’s Alex McCarthy who registered -8.1 PSxG (!) over the season.

In summary, it is a good thing that both these goalkeepers have conceded less goals than expected. But there are plenty of goalkeepers in the league who have registered better stats.

Who is my ideal number 2?

Quite clearly, Sam Johnstone is the better goalkeeper out of the two. And bearing in mind the fact that whoever we sign could become the Arsenal number 1 in the near future, Johnstone is much more suitable for the role and comes at a much cheaper price. However, the only case I can make for Ramsdale is his potential. Although Johnstone is not old, he doesn’t have as much room for development as 23-year-old Aaron Ramsdale. And I think that the Sheffield United number 1 is a much better keeper than people think he is.

Regarding his price tag too, £30 million does seem like a lot to spend on a recently relegated back-up goalkeeper. However, if the club are willing to spend that money while also paying £50 million for Ben White and making bids in the region of £40 million for other players such as Tammy Abraham and Manuel Locatelli, then I am confident that money is not an issue this summer.

The bottom line is that Arsenal are looking in the right area. Price-tag aside, a home-grown English goalkeeper with Premier League experience is a move that makes sense. It shows signs of much smarter recruitment than Arsenal have shown in recent years.