Analysis

Settled Matters and Arsenal’s Attacking Problem

Objectively speaking, Arsenal has been an utter disaster going forward this season. Mikel Arteta himself said recently that a top team should be scoring between 90 and 100 goals a season. We are currently falling well short of that mark. At the moment, Arsenal are producing some of the worst attacking numbers in not just the Premier League, but in the entire country. After getting spanked 3-0 at home by a much-improved Aston Villa, Arteta is left to spend the international break contemplating how to get his side scoring again. Unfortunately, a massive portion of the fanbase have spent much of the season suggesting an unrealistic smellingsalt for Arsenal’s chance creation.

On October 20, it was reported that Mesut Ozil had been omitted from Arsenal’s 25-man Premier League squad. This doesn’t come as a surprise, of course. Ozil hadn’t featured since Project Restart began and was already left out of Mikel Arteta’s squad for the Europa League. Since the departure of Arsene Wenger, Ozil has repeatedly clashed with the club. He has been completely left out of the side by all three coaches who have been at the helm since Wenger left. He jeopardized Arsenal’s commercial success in China when he tweeted his opposition to his treatment of the Uighurs, but still played many matches after that. However, his refusal to join his teammates in taking a pay cut and consequent bragging about being right to do so has been reported as being a factor in the decision to exclude Ozil from this season’s squad. The pay cut discussions, which took place during the suspension of the league last season, immediately preceded Ozil being frozen out.

To be fair to Ozil, he was not wrong to do some of the things he did. How can one disagree with speaking out against one of the most disgusting and flagrant human rights abuses of the 21st century? And boasting aside, almost 60 redundancies later Ozil appears to have been right to question how the club would use the money it received from reducing its players’ wages. And to continue being fair to him, Arsenal’s actions have been far from honorable. The club threw him under the bus at the first sign of a hit to their bottom line during the China situation. Ozil was outed as one of the players who refused a pay cut, yet the other two players who also took this decision have mysteriously remained anonymous. However, the objective fact remains that despite the righteousness of Ozil’s actions, he went against the club. And while there may also be some actual football reasons as to why he has been excluded from the Europa and Premier League squads, not falling in line with the club is the main reason why he’s out and why his Arsenal career is probably over.

Naturally, Ozil’s omission from the squad has sparked outrage among the Arsenal fanbase. The German playmaker is one of the most popular footballers in the world, with over 25 million followers on Twitter, over 22 million followers on Instagram, and even a massive following on Twitch. When he was first signed from Real Madrid, fans literally almost covered Ozil’s £42 million transfer fee through kit purchases. With so much worldwide support for the player, the decision to leave him out of the team entirely this season has proven to be a massive scandal. Arsenal fans are furious to the point where they have demanded his reinstatement into the team after every loss or performance in which the Gunners did not freely create chances — which describes basically every game the team has played. After 8 matches played, Arsenal sit at 11th in the league table with four wins and four losses. They have only scored 9 goals in the league to this point, and after the 3-0 defeat at home to Villa have not scored from open play in the Premier League in over five hours.

Something is wrong with the attack. However, Ozil is not the solution. Why? Mainly because he isn’t an option. Arsenal have made it clear at this point that Ozil has been sentenced to exile, and that his fate isn’t likely to change, even after January. Making matters worse are Ozil’s escapades on social media, which indicate that he and the club have gone to war with each other. To concede and allow Ozil back into the squad now would make Arsenal, whose appearance so far in this matter has been questionable, look downright farcical to the rest of the footballing world. Arteta would look just as bad as Emery did for caving to the German around this time last year, and would lose much of the authority and respect from the players that has allowed him to be successful as quickly as he has. Ozil isn’t good enough to make that all worth it. In the 58 matches he has played since the end of the Wenger era, Ozil has only registered 7 goals and 6 assists. The reality is that his relationship with Arsenal Football Club is beyond mending and he probably will never step on the pitch for Arsenal again. Fans need to accept that. The matter is settled, and we need to move on.

So if it won’t be Ozil, what is the solution to Arsenal’s creative woes? Simply put, fixing Arsenal’s creative output turns on three things. The first of these is changing the system Mikel Arteta currently deploys his players in. The current system, a 3-4-3 that focuses on attacking through the now-infamous “five channels” and converts into a back five when under pressure, has proven far too defensive. While it has allowed Arsenal to boast one of the best defensive records in the league, it has also stifled the offensive side of their game. Arteta is a man who wants to be in control, and his current setup reflects that. The structure of the sides he has put out has been very rigid, which has hindered players’ movement and therefore made them easy to mark by opposing teams. After several months of using this system, others in the league have gotten wise to how we play and have shut down our attacking players with ease. As a result, players stay still and stay marked, no space is created for shots, and horseshoe-shaped passing patterns are all Arsenal are able to do. Arteta’s system no longer troubles teams, and he needs to spend the international break tweaking it. Between Leno, Gabriel, Partey, and maybe even Elneny, Arsenal have players who provide enough security to allow them to be a bit more daring going forward. Hopefully, the manager takes note of this and decides it’s time to move to a 4-3-3.

The next thing Arteta needs to do to solve our attacking issues is change the personnel he is relying on. For instance, a theme of this season has been Alexandre Lacazette’s putridity in front of goal. The man who was Arsenal’s Player of the Season in 2018 has been woeful after scoring in the first three league games of the current campaign. As anyone who saw the Villa match could tell you, Lacazette missed an absolute sitter of a header that could have changed the outlook of the game. It’s not the first time he’s failed to tuck home his chances, which is a titanic issue when most of the team’s limited chances fall to him as the center forward. Lacazette may very well be over the hill in his career, which means it’s time to move the club’s best striker off the left flank into the middle. The idea with playing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang as a left wing was to get him more space to shoot. Unfortunately, that strategy is not working at the moment, as Aubameyang is being purposefully forced out on the touchline by sides that are savvy to Arteta’s gameplan. As a result, the chances are falling to Lacazette and not the striker we just committed £300,000 a week to. That cannot be allowed to continue. Aubameyang needs to start in the middle. Aubameyang in the middle surrounded by more natural wingers gave us our best attacking display this season so far against Sheffield. It is a blueprint that should be heeded.

Additionally, Willian has been dreadful since the Fulham game. He provides no incision, no pace, no threat. He doesn’t even give us the technical security Arteta supposedly wanted him for. In the meantime, Nicolas Pepe has scored twice and assisted twice in his last two starts for the team. This may have come against less-than-impressive opposition, but Pepe has time and again demonstrated a propensity to make things happen. Since his signing, only Aubameyang has more direct goal contributions than Pepe has. Unlike most of the other players in the squad, Pepe has the courage to try a shot or play a risky pass. Having him on the pitch gives the other team another thing to worry about, even if Pepe loses the ball often (which is something that most attacking players do). The club’s record signing needs to get a run of games. Now is the time to see what he’s made of. It’s probably better stuff than Willian has at this point.

Two other players who deserve a bigger role are Joe Willock and Reiss Nelson. There isn’t much more Willock can do to show that he brings something to the team no other Arsenal midfielder does. His ability to make late runs into the box creates movement that opens up space for chances and forces defenses to adapt. Willock creates opportunities for forwards, and provides a goal threat himself. He is essentially the closest thing Arsenal have to a replacement for Aaron Ramsey. And Nelson is a wide player who is direct and speedy but also possesses good technical quality and intelligent movement, something Arsenal’s front line could really use right now. Nelson has been knocking on the door of the first team for some time now, and his performance against Dundalk indicated that he is ready for a breakout. Both Willock and Nelson need to be given a chance in the first team by Arteta.

Gabriel Martinelli, another young player who briefly shone last season before suffering a torn ACL, looks set to return sometime next month. The Brazilian forward appears to have a high ceiling in terms of his talent level, and could quickly provide another dimension for Arsenal’s attack upon his return. It would be surprising if Arteta didn’t find a way to work him into the side.

The third part of the solution for Arsenal’s attacking issues is to simply look externally for better players. While Aubameyang, Pepe, Nelson, Martinelli, and Willock all have something to offer, there clearly still is a piece missing. That piece is likely a dynamic chance creator, a complete midfielder who can play incisive passes to open up defenses, beat their man or make runs to create space, score goals, cover large swaths of the pitch, and chip in defensively. That player is simply not in Arsenal’s roster. Fortunately, reports indicate that Arteta and Edu know that, as they have apparently been in talks with Dominik Szoboszlai with an eye still on Houssem Aouar. Whether a move will be made for one of those two or another creative midfielder in January remains to be seen.

Arsenal’s attacking prowess is miles away from what it once was. We all can see that. Surely we can all also see that Ozil being the solution to that is almost impossible at this point for multiple reasons. But the path is there for Arteta to improve the situation. That path, however, will require boldness, patience, and probably a little bit of spending. Hopefully, Arteta realizes that he needs to try something new. If he is half the manager we think he is, he has probably already started making his way down that road.

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