Ten Hag claims title needs 85 to 90 goals, but Arsenal already disproved it
Erik ten Hag has claimed that winning the Premier League requires a team to score somewhere between 85 and 90 goals in a season. Arsenal's title winning campaign last season tells a rather different story.
Speaking in an in depth interview with The Athletic, the former Manchester United manager explained the data driven approach he uses to judge players and build squads, and touched on the scoring output he believes is necessary for genuine title contention.
The Friday Injury Tracker
Who's out, who's back and what it means for the next two games.
“Seven points where I judge the player,” Ten Hag said. “Technical ability, for me, is most important. Second is game intelligence and cognition. Third, you need athleticism, then lifestyle. Determination. Resilience and robustness to play every third day. And then we want to be always offensive.”
He continued: “For instance, when I came to United, we didn't have the scoring ability to be in the top four. I will not say football is mathematics, but a bit of logic is in it. For us at Twente, we need 70 goals if you want to be in fourth position. When you want to win the Premier League, you need 85, 90 goals. I use this every day, so it should not be a document in a drawer. That is winning culture, if we match what we described. We use a lot of data to see new signings match our style of play.”
Arsenal's low scoring triumph
Ten Hag's theory held up for four consecutive Premier League champions between the 2020/21 and 2024/25 seasons, all of whom scored at least 85 goals. Arsenal broke that pattern emphatically last season, lifting the title with just 71 goals scored, the fewest by a champion since Leicester City's 68 in 2015/16.
What made Mikel Arteta's side so difficult to beat instead was their defence. Arsenal conceded only 27 goals across the campaign and kept 19 clean sheets, numbers that took the pressure off the attack to chase down Ten Hag's suggested benchmark.
Arteta has long spoken publicly about the defensive culture he has tried to instil at the club. “The key is that everybody goes 100 miles per hour for every ball,” he said in 2024. “Our strikers, our wingers, our attacking midfielders, they have a love for defending. Installing that within the players is something really important. Applauding and paying compliments to that as well, so when those defensive actions happen, they are valued as much as the attacking ones. If you want to win consistently, that door has to be shut.”
The pattern continues this season
Arsenal have scored 13 goals so far this season, fewer than Manchester City, Brighton and Chelsea. Yet they currently boast the division's best defence, having conceded just five goals and adding another clean sheet in Saturday's win over Everton.
Arteta's priorities remain unchanged regardless of how the goals column compares to rivals. The approach that delivered the title last season suggests the only number that matters at the end of 38 games is Arsenal's position in the table, not how many goals got them there.
