Arsenal’s Goalkeeping Options – Kiss, Kill or Marry

Okay, here’s the scenario. You must kiss, kill or marry these three goalkeeping options: Bernd Leno, Emiliano Martinez and Aaron Ramsdale. Here, kiss is to make second-choice keeper, kill means to let go of, and marry is to name your starting keeper. Don’t ask me why we’re doing this. 

The Rules are thus – you can’t leave any out and you can’t assign two of these things to one goalkeeper. You have the benefit of hindsight, which to be fair to Artedu, which is the Brangelina name for Arteta and Edu, the pair did not have in the summer of 2020. And we know what choices they have made. Kiss Ramsdale, kill Emi and marry Leno. 

Will you make the same choice? You also have the benefit of the case made out in this article. Let’s look at them the way we look at all kiss, kill, marry options: one by one.

Bernd Leno

Only fair to start with Arsenal’s current starting goalkeeper. Bernd Leno cost Arsenal approximately 22 million pounds in July 2018 when he arrived. Nobody can claim he hasn’t been well worth the money. Performance in his first two seasons at Arsenal (2018-19 and 2019-20) was commendable, at least until the second was cut short by injury. He kept 7 clean sheets each, with ~23% of his games ending in clean sheets.

He made 103 & 110 saves in those seasons, with a save percentage of 74.5% and 77.6%. His numbers improved in his next season (i.e. the one that just went by: 2020-21). He kept 11 clean sheets at 31.4%. But his total saves made has gone down to 84. Part of this is explained by the fact that he faced fewer shots (117 v 147 and 137 in the seasons before). But his save% also dropped almost 8.5 percentage points to 69.2%.

The most important statistic that explains shot stopping capabilities is PSxG-GA. This is the post-shot expected goals (xG) minus goals allowed. xG is the current metric of choice that quantifies the quality of shots. Post-shot xG is calculated after the shot is taken, to remove off-target shots, and so better calculates the keeper’s contribution. It also does not include own goals. If you subtract the number of goals allowed from this stat, you get a numerical quantification of the goalkeeper’s ability to prevent goals. A positive number means more goals saved than was expected. And a negative number means more goals let in than was expected. Thus, the PSxG-GA.

Leno’s PSxG-GA in the last season was +4.1. Which means that over the season, he let in only 33 goals, whereas he was expected to let in 37.

Emi Martinez

Oh, what could have been. Despite being practically delivered in the Arsenal maternity ward, Martinez had to wait ten years, and a Bernd Leno injury, for a chance to prove himself. And prove himself he did. He played the remainder of that game, and the remaining 8 games of the season as Arsenal’s No. 1. He kept 3 clean sheets at 37.5% and made 33 saves with a save percentage of a whopping 81%! He significantly outperformed Leno in that season. In just eight and a half games, he had racked up a PSxG-GA of +3.9! 

He had shown that he would never again be a second-choice goalkeeper. He bode his time for ten long years, and then gave us the greatest coming of age story since Araby in James Joyce’s Dubliners. Arteta had a decision on his hands. Demote Leno to second choice, or sell Martinez? He took a decision that no one can fault him for on the basis of what was known then. 

And I wouldn’t blame him for reminiscing about what could have been, like a sad ex-boyfriend refreshing his ex’s instagram page after a breakup that was his own fault. Martinez has gone on to keep clean sheets in nearly 40% of his games. He maintained a high 76.8% save percentage throughout the season, and even saved a penalty (#5Points #FPL). His PSxG-GA over the season was an absolutely ridiculous +7.4.

He is also better than Leno with his feet. Arteta’s style of play demands a build-from-the-back approach, where the goalkeeper is the first attacker. Martinez is a better passer and is more confident with the ball at his feet than Leno, though it is more difficult to reduce that ability to numbers.

Aaron Ramsdale

Impossible as it is, I’m going to try to put aside the sheer absurdity of selling Martinez for less than £20 million, and then bidding in the range of £30 million for a goalkeeper heavily recommended by the man who brought Runarsson to Arsenal. I will approach Ramsdale’s section armed not with my many, many emotions, but with cold hard stats. 

The first stat to note is that the man is 23, giving him several years on the other two. It also means that he is likely to grow and improve, whereas Leno and Martinez are nearly finished products. The other point of subjectivity to note is that his Premier League experience has come with Bournemouth (in 2019-20) and then Sheffield United (in 2020-21). Arsenal’s defence has not been their strong side since the Koscielny-Mertesacker partnership was at its peak, but the back line at least offers greater protection than Bournemouth’s and Sheffield’s. Ramsdale was able to manage a 67.8% in 2019-20 for Bournemouth and 70.7 for Sheffield United. He kept 5 clean sheets each at 13.5% in both seasons. 

His PSxG-GA was actually negative 0.3 for Bournemouth, and only +1.9 for Sheffield. To assess him against Arteta’s preference for a goalkeeper who plays out from the back, 91.5% of his goalkicks were 40yd+ launches last season. Martinez at Arsenal launched 54% of his goal kicks over 40yds, which increased to 70% in Aston Villa’s system. Leno, on the other hand, launched 59% of his goal kicks. Ramsdale will, clearly, have to fit into a system where he currently doesn’t play. 

Verdict

Kiss: Leno

Marry: Martinez

Kill: Ramsdale

Unfortunately, I don’t live in Fantasyland (I live in Chittaranjan Park, New Delhi – 110 019), and we can’t go back for Martinez. Artedu’s choice appears to remain Kiss Ramsdale, Kill Martinez, Marry Leno.