It has long been discussed that Arsenal require a new starting right-back. However, it does seem that links we were seeing at the beginning of the window seem to have tempered.This is down to a couple of reasons.

Firstly, we are currently prioritising other areas and secondly, we are looking to sell Bellerin. The latter point makes sense, if we don’t get Bellerin off the books and get a new right-back in, we will have four players in that position (including Bellerin, Chambers and Cedric).  However, for me, signing a starting right-back is imperative to success in our next Premier League campaign.  Arsenal need to have a right-sided counterpart to Kieran Tierney, who has been dominant on the left-side of the pitch. The imbalance we currently have will lead to a predictable offensive team attacking down the left-side of the pitch.

In this article I will break-down some of the stats of the best performing right-backs in the League (in order to determine what a good profile looks like), their common attributes and compare them to our best right-backs. I will then delve into some of the potential right-backs we have been linked with, comparing them to our players by some of the metrics that we know the best right-backs in the league perform well by.

Premier League Right-backs

For this analysis I have chosen three defenders that have played as either a right-back in a back four or a right-sided centre-back in a back three (or both): João Cancelo, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Reece James.

You can see their average offensive and defensive performance –  on a scale of 0-100 – for a variety of stats below. What we are looking for here is commonalities between the players. Identifying these will help us highlight Premier League proven traits we should look for in a potential signing. Here are the common traits:

Offensive (Figure 1): Total shots,  xA (expected assists), progressive passes, progressive carries, dribbles completed

Defensive (Figure 2): Interceptions, tackles

Figure 1. Average offensive stats for high performing Premier League right-backs

Figure 2. Average defensive stats for high performing Premier League right-backs

Arsenal Right-backs

Below are the offensive (Figure 3) and defensive (Figure 4) stats for Arsenal right-backs. You can see that the identified players are far above the current Gunners for offensive statistics. Defensive stats however are a bit more varied, with some of Arsenal’s defenders matching the players above (apart from Reece James, who is a far superior defender).

Figure 3. Average offensive stats for Arsenal right-backs

Figure 4.  Average defensive stats for Arsenal right-backs

I plotted a radar chart below comparing our best overall right-back option (Calum Chambers) to the best overall right-sided defender chosen for this analysis (João Cancelo). You can see here that Chambers leaves a lot to be desired (Figure 5). Scoring comparatively low for most stats, including progressive passes, carries, tackles and dribbles completed. These are common traits amongst “good” right-backs. It’s worth noting that Cancelo often finds himself in very advanced positions and often in midfield. He is not a typical right-back, but we know how Arteta likes to set-up in a similar fashion to Guardiola. 

Figure 5.  João Cancelo vs. Calum Chambers for all performance stats

Potential Right-backs

So we’ve identified some common attributes shared between the best right-sided defenders in the Premier League and highlighted that Arsenal are lacking in these areas. Now we’ll analyse a few of the players we have been linked with and see if they possess the key traits we identified earlier.

The players I have selected are Zeki Çelik, Noussair Mazraoui and Denzel Dumfries. Arsenal have been with a move for these players since the transfer window opened. It is worth mentioning that these players are not yet Premier League proven so making direct comparisons to current League talent should be approached with caution, but it does at least give us an indication of whether they could develop in England. Furthermore, these three players are selected due to previous links and it may actually be the case that Arsenal are not looking to bring in a right-back at all. The concrete links to right-backs at this stage have almost entirely dried up. These player comparisons are based on the hypothetical that we will even recruit a new right-sided defender.

Analysing the Options

Now at first glance there isn’t too much difference between these players and their offensive performance compared to the Arsenal players. But, both Çelik and Mazraoui outperform Chambers for progressive passes, progressive carries and dribbles completed, which were all associated with the elite right-backs previously mentioned. Mazraoui also beats Chambers for total shots. Both Çelik and Mazraoui perform quite poorly for xA and assists, which is likely dragging down their overall offensive performance; however, with the calibre of attackers at Arsenal, this could (and should) improve. Furthermore, Mazraoui performs well defensively (overall ~ 80) – including his tackling ability – which is extremely encouraging, given that the elite right-backs we analysed previously also exhibit this trait. 

Another final thing to point out is that both these players fit the age profile Edu and Arteta seem to be going for at the moment (Celik: 24 and Mazraoui: 23), which would leave them plenty of time to improve some of their offensive capabilities they are currently lacking. To corroborate this notion, Arteta has previously said on record that  “we have to create a space within our squad to give the opportunity to start to fit our first team as well with young players. And that is the key for our future.” The players Edu and Arteta have signed so far in this window (Nuno Tavares, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Ben White) are 21, 21 and 23, respectively which reinforces the notion that they are in for young talent to fit in and around the squad.

Figure 6.  Average offensive stats for potential right-back signings

Figure 7. Average defensive stats for potential right-back signings

Figure 8.  Noussair Mazraoui vs. Calum Chambers for all performance stats

Figure 9.   Zeki Çelik vs. Calum Chambers for all performance stats

Future Right Back Planning

Arsenal are likely seeking a right-back replacement in order to balance their progressive wing play and solidity at the back. Their current options are under performing for a number of key performance stats compared to elite Premier League talent.

Some of the players we are looking to recruit in the right-back position score higher than our current players for many of the key stats mentioned. They will however have to look to improve their assisting capabilities, which should be possible with the attacking talent currently at Arsenal.

Finally, they will also likely improve given that these players are young and match the age profile Arsenal are currently investing in. The only issue with this is whoever we get in will likely be a starter, so there is an element of risk in buying a player that has not proven themselves in the Premier League.