An analysis of Arsenal’s squad and where it needs to be improved (part one)

Arsenal are supposedly set for a major squad overhaul. It’s a familiar story, but, in recent seasons, the club have failed to deliver the necessary signings to help the Gunners achieve their sporting goals all too often.

This time, however, Arsenal’s need for serious investment is more urgent than it has been since the club last missed out on European competition at the end of the 1994/95 season.

The squad currently at Mikel Arteta’s disposal is, frankly, not good enough. 

There are bright Hale End talents and various other reasons for cautious optimism, but, equally, there are gaping holes that must be filled with quality if the Gunners are to have any chance of returning to the Champions League.

Qualification for Europe’s premier club competition has been Arsenal’s goal ever since they slipped out of it in 2017, either through their league position or by winning the Europa League. However, failure to qualify for the latter competition ahead of this season means that the Gunners’ only remaining option is to finish in the top four.

Given the quality of the teams that occupied the top four spots last season – Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea – Arsenal have work to do in the transfer market if they are to turn themselves into serious contenders. 

A shift from 3-4-3 to 4-2-3-1 last season sparked an upturn in form for the Gunners, and it is likely that any recruitment plans will be made with the latter formation in mind.

First, we take a look at Arsenal’s goalkeeping and defensive options and pick out areas that could be improved through recruitment.

Goalkeeper

Between the sticks, Bernd Leno appears to have decided to remain at the club and will likely continue as Arsenal’s first-choice goalkeeper. 

At his best, the German is capable of spectacular saves and is fairly reliable at stopping crosses and sweeping, but errors have crept into his game of late. However, his PSxG +/- (post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed) per 90 score of +0.12 indicates that, on balance, his saves outweigh his mistakes – purely from a shot-stopping perspective. 

In terms of kicking, however, Leno’s distribution is adequate but not outstanding and he often makes poor decisions when passing out from the back. 

A positive pass completion efficiency percentage (calculated by subtracting expected pass completion percentage from actual pass completion percentage) simply means that the goalkeeper in question completed more passes than he was expected to based on the difficulty of the passes he attempted.

Leno’s pass completion efficiency percentage (xComp +/-) of just under +0.5% in the Premier League last season puts the German just ninth in the division, while elite passers like Ederson and Alisson lead the way with xComp +/- between +2.5% and +3%. 

What that statistic fails to depict, however, is Leno’s propensity to play his team-mates into trouble when building from the back.

The former Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper has repeatedly made the error of passing to a central midfielder (usually Granit Xhaka) who is under pressure when dropping deep to show for the ball, often resulting in a turnover in a dangerous part of the pitch.

The goal gifted to Chris Wood in the Gunners’ 1-1 draw with Burnley at Turf Moor back in March was just one such example, and though Xhaka was also partly to blame, Leno’s decision-making in that instance was poor.

In fact, the same issue reared its head as Arsenal fell 2-1 to Chelsea on August 1, with the goalkeeper’s passes regularly leading to Chelsea winning the ball high up the field, and the Gunners were lucky not to concede more.

In the same game, however, the German also displayed his strong shot-stopping qualities as he stood tall to deny several Chelsea forwards in one-on-one positions in a performance that served as a good summation of his strengths and weaknesses.

However, there is a lack of attainable, clear upgrades to Leno outside of Ajax’s Andre Onana, whose ban would see him miss several months of the season and who may take time to recapture his best form. 

Arsenal cannot afford another slow start to a league season. Last term, they picked up just 14 points from their first 14 games, effectively ruling themselves out of the race for the top four before Christmas. 

Furthermore, it is unlikely that a starting-quality goalkeeper such as Onana would agree to join without the guarantee of regular minutes, and Leno would surely be unhappy at the club signing a prospective replacement for him. As a result, the Gunners must find a capable deputy instead, with the inexperienced Arthur Okonkwo not quite ready yet and the inept Runar Alex Runarsson seemingly on his way out. 

Australian Mat Ryan looked to be a solid back-up in his three appearances for the club whilst on loan from Brighton and Hove Albion, but he has since signed for Real Sociedad. 

In any case, Arsenal see the second-choice goalkeeper position as a good opportunity to add a home-grown player, and the links to Sheffield United’s Aaron Ramsdale and West Bromwich Albion’s Sam Johnstone reflect that strategy. 

Reports would suggest that Ramsdale is Arsenal’s top target for the role, but the Blades’ asking price of £30m is far too much to spend on a deputy goalkeeper, and the hope is that Arsenal will turn their attention elsewhere. 

Johnstone, meanwhile, is available for the much more reasonable sum of £12m, given that the 28-year-old has just one year left on his contract. 

Johnstone is a good shot-stopper (matching Leno’s PSxG +/- per 90 score of +0.12), but can occasionally lack conviction when coming for crosses and his passing numbers last season leave something to be desired (an xComp +/- of under -4%). Still, a second-choice goalkeeper is unlikely to be perfect and his price tag feels fair. 

An alternative option – albeit one who would likely cost more – is Newcastle United’s Freddie Woodman, who impressed on loan with Swansea City in the Championship and was a key player as the Welsh side reached the playoffs.

Defence

Arsenal’s defence does not need a great deal more work than what has already been done, as the club have recently added to a back line that boasted the third-best defensive record in the Premier League last season.

In Nuno Tavares, the Gunners have brought in a young, energetic alternative to Kieran Tierney – who is fast becoming one of the team’s most important players at left-back – while Sead Kolasinac is likely to leave permanently. 

In the centre of defence, Arteta has two left-footed options in the form of Gabriel Magalhaes and Pablo Mari, while new £50m signing Ben White joins Rob Holding as one of the two right-footed options. 

The former Brighton and Hove Albion defender is a welcome addition following William Saliba’s loan to Marseille and the expiry of David Luiz’s contract, with the departure of the pair leaving Arsenal light on ball-playing centre-backs. 

Luiz provided an expansive passing range from deep last season, but his rashness out of possession (three red cards and six penalties conceded in two Premier League seasons with Arsenal) often cost the Gunners, while Arteta clearly feels that 20-year-old Saliba needs more experience.

White, meanwhile, is similarly comfortable with the ball at his feet, but is a far less rash defender than Luiz and, at 23 and with a season of Premier League football under his belt, boasts more experience than Saliba.

A partnership of White and Gabriel is likely to be Arteta’s first-choice pairing and the duo possess both athleticism and ball-playing ability. Mari, whilst a little slow, reads the game well and has proved relatively reliable, while Holding counts as another home-grown option, although his performances have tended to be inconsistent, producing a solid display one week and making a sloppy error the next. 

Should an appropriate offer arrive for the Englishman, perhaps it should be considered, with Calum Chambers a candidate to take his place as the second-choice right-sided centre-back – at least until William Saliba returns from his latest loan to Marseille.

Chambers has impressed as a right-back since returning from his ACL injury, with the quality of his crossing a vast improvement on the alternatives on that side. However, his lack of pace limits him as a full-back, and he can struggle defensively against quick, direct wingers, meaning a return to central defence could suit him. 

Regardless of the 26-year-old’s primary position for the coming season, however, it is clear that Arsenal need to sign a starting-quality right-back. 

Last season, the Gunners heavily favoured their left side when building attacks, with none of the current crop of right-backs able to mirror Tierney’s offensive output (the Scotsman ranked third in the Arsenal squad for passes leading directly to a shot) and often leaving Bukayo Saka or Nicolas Pepe with minimal support on the wing. 

Hector Bellerin, for instance, has not been the same player since he suffered an ACL injury of his own. With the lightning pace that defined the Spaniard’s game no longer apparent, Bellerin excels at neither going forward or defending and should be replaced, particularly given his hefty wages. 

There have been various links, with Inter and a host of Spanish clubs reportedly interested, and his departure would create space in the squad for a new face. 

Cedric Soares, meanwhile, has been an unspectacular signing and is not of the requisite quality to be a regular starter, but has proven capable enough as a squad player, at least for the time being. 

One Arsenal player who could make the right-back berth his own, however, is Ainsley Maitland-Niles. 

The Hale End product has impressed on both the left and right sides of defence, but is naturally right-footed and possesses a blend of qualities that make him a good fit for the role. Athletic, energetic and intelligent enough to tuck into midfield as an inverted full-back, the 23-year-old has the capacity to save Arsenal the trouble of recruiting a new face. 

However, Maitland-Niles has made it abundantly clear that he sees himself as a central midfielder and unless Arteta can convince him otherwise, it seems unlikely that the Englishman will be content to continue in that role. 

Thus far, there has been no indication that Arteta sees Maitland-Niles as a starting-quality midfielder and there are rumours linking the player with an exit.

The lack of concrete links to right-backs is something of a concern to this point, and the hope is that Arsenal are either doing their business quietly or have simply been distracted with other deals and will eventually address this area. 

Lofty dreams of acquiring Achraf Hakimi from Inter early in the window were quickly quashed, as the Moroccan joined Paris Saint-Germain instead. 

RB Leipzig’s Nordi Mukiele – or a  signing who profiles similarly – could be a good fit, should he be available at a fair price. The physically imposing Frenchman often features as a wing-back, providing support in the final third with his bursting runs forward, while his capacity to feature as a central defender is testament to both his defensive capabilities and tactical awareness, meaning he is likely to be able to play an inverted role if required. 

Verdict

The additions of White and Tavares have addressed key areas of need at the back and the club should be lauded for the deals they have done thus far. However, Arsenal still require a home-grown goalkeeper who is good enough to push Leno but also content to be second-choice, as well as a starting right-back of real quality to replace Bellerin – ideally one who can tuck in as an inverted full-back as well as hold width and make overlapping runs.