Finding Arsenal’s perfect striker

A week remains of the summer transfer window. Arsenal have completed five deals so far this summer, White, Lokonga, Tavares and most recently Odegaard and Ramsdale. It seems that if any more transfers are to be made, they would require outgoings first. One player who could be on his way out is Alex Lacazette. Lacazette is entering the final year of his Arsenal contract, and at this point, an extension looks unlikely. So Arsenal are looking for someone to take Lacazette this week.

In the event Lacazette departs, Arsenal would obviously need to sign another striker. Names like Tammy Abraham were discussed before he moved to Roma, joining with Jose Mourinho. However the strongest links at the moment for Arsenal are Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Inter Milan’s Lauturo Martinez. However neither of these deals are advanced yet. But, with help from some brilliant stats from Frankinetics, I’ll take a look at who would be the perfect striker for Arsenal.

The ideal profile

To put it simply, Arsenal do a lot of crossing. In Arsene Wenger’s final season in charge (2017/18), Arsenal put in 572 crosses, the fewest in the league. Fast forward to last season, when Arsenal put in 751 crosses, the seventh highest in the league. The difference is clear, Mikel Arteta’s team like to cross. This is mainly because of Kieran Tierney – who’s crossing is impeccable. 

This is an example from last year’s Premier League defeat against Leicester. Kieran Tierney on the left wing, feeds Lacazette with an immaculate cross. However, Lacazette – not renowned for his heading – fails to hit the target.

To put it simply again, Arsenal need a striker who can head the ball well. Right now, neither Aubameyang or Lacazette offer much of an aerial threat. With Kieran Tierney at Arsenal for the foreseeable future, it makes no sense to persist with two strikers who are not able to make the most of the Scottish left-back’s crosses. So with that in mind, let’s see how both the linked strikers fits in with this profile.

Lauturo Martinez

Lauturo Martinez scored 17 goals and supplied 10 assists last season as Inter Milan topped Serie A. While there are talks that he might sign a new contract at Inter Milan soon, he is still strongly linked with Arsenal. At 24 years of age, he fits the description of being young and having time to develop. However, part of why he flourished last season was his partnership with Chelsea’s new signing Romelu Lukaku. Obviously he would not have a partner like that at Arsenal and as optimistic as Arsenal fans can be, 32-year-old Aubameyang is a huge downgrade on Lukaku.

This deal would also come at a cosiderable cost, and a bid of around €90 million (£76.8 million) should be enough to sign the Argentinian forward. This would take Arsenal’s spending for the summer over £200 million and so a deal seems very unlikely, even if Alex Lacazette were to leave.

On the stats side of things, Martinez is impressive. He is in the 95th percentile for total shots per game and he is in the 83rd percentile for non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes (npxG) as well. He also offers assists as well as goals, as he is in the 77th percetile for assists per 90. Martinez vastly outperforms both Lacazette and Aubameyang in terms of npxG and expected assist (xA), and would be a huge upgrade for Arsenal. He is in the 93rd percentile for touches in the attacking penalty area per 90, while Lacazette and Aubameyang are in the 36th and 48th percentile for this catergory respectively. Clearly, he gets in the right attacking positions and is clincial with his finishing. Only seven players in Serie A finished with more goals in the 2020/21 season than Martinez.

However, there is one drawback to five Lauturo Martinez’s profile. The trait I spent a whole three paragraphs droning on about, Lauturo Martinez is lacking. That is of course, aerial threat. Martinez ranks in the 24th percentile for aerials won, and he only wins on average 1.06 aerials per 90. Even Aubameyang (28th) and Lacazette (39th) rank better for aerials won! Only 16 of Martinez’s 76 career goals have been headers. That’s just over 20% of his goals. Despite this low percentage, it is an upgrade on Lacazette and Aubameyang who have scored 9% and 11% of their goals as headers respectively.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Everton’s number nine and from 33 appearances in the Premier League last season, he scored 16 goals with a further three assists. The 24-year-old has also made 11 appearances for the England national team, scoring four goals. He is already off the mark for Everton this season, with two goals from Everton’s first two games. As well as being young, Calvert-Lewin also fits the homegrown quota and so takes off some of the pressure Arsenal may face with registering foreign players.

However, a deal for Calvert-Lewin is very far off, and to my knowledge, Arsenal have not even approached for the Everton striker. Obviously, Everton have no intention to sell their star striker, so if Arsenal were to prise him away from Goodison Park, it would not be a cheap transfer. But this is certainly a player that has gotten many Arsenal fans, myself included, very excited and optimistic.

Calvert-Lewin also very much passes the stats test, as he ranks in the 86th percentile for npxG per 90 mins, averaging 0.52 npxG per 90. He registered on average 2.61 shots per game last year, which puts him in the 63rd percentile for that category. His link-up and passing game is not too strong, but his finishing and positional play is where he shines. Last Premier League season, only five players scored more goals than Dominic Calvert-Lewin. He also scored nine more goals than any Everton player in the Premier League and he was directly involved in 40% of Everton’s Premier League goals. The players he has around him, such as Richarlison, J. Rodriguez and ex-Arsenal man Iwobi are not the most creative players, so if he is registering these numbers without a string supply behind him, imagine how well he’d do with Saka, Odegaard and Smith Rowe behind him.

And now onto the most important bit – his aerial threat. What sets Calvert-Lewin apart from Martinez, is his aerial threat. Cakvert-Lewin is six foot two inches tall and he ranks in the 87th percentile for aerials won per 90, a huge improvement on Lauturo Martinez. Out of his 16 Premier League goals last season, seven were headers – meaning 44% of his goals were headers. Already this season, he has scored a header during Everton’s opening day victory over Southampton. With Kieran Tierney supplying crosses like we know he loves to do, Calvert-Lewin would score just as many headers for Arsenal. He has a similar player feeding him crosses in Lucas Digne – Everton’s left-back – so fitting him in Arteta’s system would be perfect.

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Verdict

The two strikers that I’ve taken a look at are very different profiles. Lauturo Martinez is a clinical striker but who also has more to his game than his goals. His link up play is strong, and as last season showed, he combines well with a strike partner. Clavert-Lewin on the other hand is the Premier League proven, old-fashioned striker. He’s always making runs into the box, and his strength is his physical and aerial threat. Both options look unrealistic this window, and both would come at a considerable price, but they would lead the Arsenal frontline for years to come.

If we’re talking purely about ability, Martinez looks like the better striker. Granted, he plays for a better team, but his stats are amazing and he’s lead his team to many trophies. However, Calvert-Lewin is a better fit for Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal. He is strong, and can hold up the play. But he also thrives on good service, and in particular on good crosses. In Kieran Tierney, arsenal have a great crosser, and in Calvert-Lewin, Arsenal would have a great headerer of the ball.

Tierney combining with Calvert-Lewin looks promising, and that’s why the perfect striker to take Arsenal to the next level, is Dominic Calvert-Lewin.